<< Climate Change is not an academic subject, it´s a matter of life and death.>>
– Henry Puna

In the early morning hours of the 18^th November 2017, the climate change COP 23 in Bonn came to an end after two weeks of negotiations, discussions and debates. The conference didn’t result in tremendous progress but met the overall expectations. Progress in implementing the Paris Agreement was achieved and next steps towards the coal phase-out were undertaken. Bonn was a necessary step on the way to Katowice next year where the members of the parties will come together again.

One main outcome of COP 23 consists of the further elaboration of the Paris Agreement’s Rule Book. Clear and consistent standards were needed regarding measuring and reporting CO₂ emissions as well as advances in climate protection on the national level within all participating nations. Aiming for the prevention or at least for slowing down the global heating, a draft of around 200 pages was presented. This document will be finalized and adopted at COP 24.

Despite the disappointing German position concerning the withdrawal from coal use, the initiation of the global “Powering Past Coal Alliance” was a great step towards a coal free future. Under leadership of Canada and the UK, more than two dozen countries, provinces, states and cities agreed on the phasing-out of the climate killer within the next decades. Germany might follow in 2018. Its role as a financial supporter of climate protection is very important but others took over political leadership.

Contrasting Americas official position, positive signals came from other US representatives including civil society members, companies, states and cities: “We are still in!” – a clear message and support to keep the spirit of Paris alive in Bonn.

Further achievements are the adoption of the Gender Action Plan, the development of the Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform and the launch of the Ocean Pathway Partnership. In order to promote and stimulate the process of inclusive, participatory and transparent dialogue, the Talanoa Dialogue was initiated. This facilitative exchange encourages action in climate mitigation by bringing together science, industry and the civil society.

Apart from the negotiation processes in the Bula (Fijian for “hello”) Zone, the organization of the climate conference in Bonn in two zones, also provided room and opportunities for showcasing projects and examples of implementation. Countries, industry and civil society presented a wide spectrum of climate action solutions in hundreds of events in the Bonn Zone.

The COP 23 was characterized by the shared general consensus to get active in climate policy. That is a strong signal but a lot of work remains until more groundbreaking decisions will have to be made in Poland next year. From our perspective as scientists, the statement of His Excellency Mr. Henry Puna, Prime Minister of Cook Islands, should provide motivation and be seen as a mandate: “Climate Change is not an academic subject, it´s a matter of life and death.”

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“Negotiations are important, but action is more important” – Salaheddine Mezouar, COP22 President

The first week of the conference was marked by the presence of several African countries which share together the urgent need of implementing the Paris Agreement. Besides participating individually to main plenary meetings and informal consultations during meetings of the convention and protocol bodies on specific agenda item of the Paris agreement, the African Group organized several closed meetings at least twice a day in order to discuss, prepare and clarify the position, visions and expectations of African countries during COP 23. Unfortunately, we didn’t have access to those closed meetings. As a result, the point of view expressed here is based on what we have heard and seen during plenaries as well as informal discussion with countries’ representatives.

Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change
I think we heard this sentence or something similar at every single speech of African negotiators during plenary meetings, and it’s not false. From coastal locations in the West, tropical ecosystems in the center, small islands in the Indian Ocean to arid and semi-arid regions in the North and South, every single country feels the adverse effects of climate change. Agriculture is the main sector impacted by climate change, due to the high reliance on precipitation for rain-fed agriculture which accounts for nearly 95% of farmed land in Africa. This high vulnerability is also linked to poverty which induces low adaptive capacities and mitigation actions across the continent.

A lot of progress is made at the national level
In response of the adverse effects of climate change, a lot of efforts is put in place across the continent to cope with climate change both at the national and international level. During plenaries and side-events, several African countries shared their efforts made. Amongst the 169 Parties who already ratified the Paris Agreement, 52 are from Africa. This denotes their commitment and their need to implement the Paris Agreement which entered into force in November 2016. In addition to that, of the 8000 climate and sustainable development projects registered under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), more than 45% are from African countries said Frank Volke, Chair of the CDM executive board during the 2nd meeting of the ad hoc group responsible for the implementation of the Paris agreement (APA) when presenting the annual report of their activities on Tuesday 7 November.

More than 45% of the 8000 climate and sustainable development profects are from African countries.

However, out the 52 Africans countries who ratified the Paris Agreement, only 5 already submitted their first Biennial Update Report (BUR), 2 countries submitted the second one and the rest are actively working on their own. This shows the difficulties and the challenges for African countries even if they share the same enthusiasm in the fight against climate change. At the national level, efforts are being made to improve GHG inventories and to bring together several actors, like the Climate Change Forum presented by the representative of Uganda during the first Presidency’s Open Dialogue on Wednesday, and which brings together government,  NGOs, members of the civil society, youths, local communities to discuss and find common solutions. In addition to that, several countries have already identified keys sectors focusing on adaptation and mitigation actions.

Need for collective efforts – a strong signal sent by the German Government

“Limiting greenhouse gas emissions is a central challenge for the future. Adaptation measures will be required in many countries…adaptation to climate change is an equally important second pillar of the Paris Agreement. Germany has been very committed in this area in the past and will remain so in future… we will once again support the Adaptation Fund this year with an additional 50 million euros” – Dr. Barbara Hendricks, German Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety

This was perceived as a strong and powerful signal sent by the German government to other developed countries to come together and assist developing countries in the fight against climate change. Across the continent, challenges are diverse and during plenaries, African representatives have expressed their difficulties and needs in term of capacity building, technology transfer, the adaptation fund, additional funds for losses and damages as well as funds for medication. This contribution from Germany will help to move forward and reach the annual amount of $100 billion promised for 2020 by developed countries towards developing ones. Since we are all in the same canoe, several collective efforts need to be implemented to meet this goal before 2020.This means:

 “We must act in solidarity because the story will not hold back who was stronger or weaker. Negotiations are important, but action is more important” – Salaheddine Mezouar, COP22 President

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We have entered a stage of post-truth politics. We need trust in science and facts.
– Prof. Dr. Klaus von Klitzing

Eleven GCE students participated and volunteered at the Impacts World Conference in Potsdam, Germany on the impacts of Climate Change, here their impressions on Day  2 on Climate migration, the PIK’s 25th Anniversary and meeting a Nobel Laureate.

Climate Change and Migration

Consequences of climate change on humans and climate change adaptation were additional topics covered during the Impacts World conference 2017 . We live and will live in a warmer world with new challenges that we need to prepare for. Especially the poor and most vulnerable people will be most affected by expected changes in regional climates, due to decreased food security, livelihood losses and health impacts.

The war in Syria is just one example of how conflicts around the world are fueled by rising food prices caused by drought. Prof. Dr. Jacqueline McGlade, scientist at the Massai Mara University in Kenya, showed us the connection between malnutrition and the degree of conflict in African countries.

Malnutrition of children was shown to lead to brain atrophy, which results in a lower capability to deal peacefully with times of high variability and uncertainty. Without action, malnutrition will likely increase in a warmer world due to drought and other extreme events.

The higher variability and uncertainty caused by climate change will be another factor contributing to critical situations in many economic poor countries. In the extreme case of the pacific island states like Tuvalu, which are projected to disappear due to rising sea levels, questions arise about where its citizens can find refuge, how their legal status will be and if developed countries have to take responsibility according to their greenhouse gas emissions? Until now, climate extremes like drought were usually shown to be a contributor but not the only cause for migration. Interestingly, climate change can also improve cooperation instead of fueling conflicts in periods of drought and other extreme events. Understanding the circumstances in which even extremer conditions lead to cooperation instead of violence is an interesting research field.

PIK’s 25th Year Anniversary

At the evening of the second Impacts World conference day, a remarkable moment was created. After spending already two days with the world’s leading climate scientists, listening to extraordinary speakers, it was then time to celebrate the 25 year anniversary of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), host of the Impacts World Conference 2017.

It took a while for the applause to cease, after the Orchestra of Change, an initiative of the Berlin State Opera, stopped playing.

It took the audience on a journey through space and time, presenting the threats of climate change in a very personal and touching way, and thus the Orchestra of Change left an impression that will last.

The music the audience just heard was especially composed for the occasion of the 25th anniversary celebrations of the PIK.

GCE meets a Nobel Laureate

All leading politicians should be sent on the moon before taking office.
–Prof. Dr. Klaus von Klitzing

There were many remarkable speakers who congratulated PIK to its 25 years of existence, but one of the most remarkable was surely Prof. Dr. Klaus von Klitzing, who received the Nobel Prize in 1985 for his discovery of the integer quantum Hall effect, and who has by now also his own constant. And to prove that he is really a Nobel Laureate, he carries his Medal in the inner pocket of his jacket – and is happy to show it to everyone who is interested. He and the other guests passionately talked about the importance of climate change, the achievements of the PIK and directly addressed us, as young scientists, to continue the great efforts needed to deal with the challenges related to climate change.

See previous article → Day 1
See next article → Day 3

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By: Katharina Funk, Anna-Lena Hendel, Claudia Steinacker

On October 11^th, 2017 Prof. Dr. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK opened the Impacts World International conference on the impacts of climate change by outlining what needs to be achieved to avoid the unmanageable and to manage the unavoidable.

Eleven Global Change Ecology students had the opportunity to join this conference (October 11th to 13th, 2017), as student helpers to support the organization team, as observers to learn more about the world that climate change will create and as presenters during the poster session.

Why Climate Impacts research?

When asked about founding the PIK, Prof. Dr. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber explained that back then he wasn´t sure whether the PIK would actually still exist in the next 25 years. By then – he said – either humanity would have found out that climate change is not a as pressing issue, or the problem would have been already solved. As we know now, neither of the two happened. Climate change became the most pressing issue in the 21th Century and there is still a long way to go to solve it. For this reason, more than 450 scientists, politicians, economists and journalists from all over the World came together to exchange knowledge, discuss on controversial topics and shape new ideas at the Impacts World Conference 2017. Some of the pressing questions discussed were:

– How will climate change affect humanity?
– What impact will it have on human health and migration?
– Can we quantify the economic costs of climate change?
– What can the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achieve in this area?

During the opening plenary, five outstanding scientists (Prof. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Prof. Dr. Antje Boetius, Prof. Dr. Rainer Sauerborn, Prof. Dr. Jacqueline McGlade and Dr. Stephane Hallegatte) talked about climate-related migration, the vanishing sea ice, sea level rise, human vulnerability, health impacts, food security and the true human cost of climate change.

This was the outline of topics to be covered in the following days and each of the topics illustrated the daunting projections for our planet. It seems humanity will face many unprecedented problems in the next centuries. But there is also hope. As many of the conference speakers emphasized, we already know a lot about the future that we are facing and research continues to investigate in that field.

The graph above was highlighted several times throughout the conference, as an example of the state of the art in climate-impacts research. Fig. 1 shows different tipping elements in the context of global mean temperature. Today, we live in an approximately 1°C warmer world due to the human influence and we are just starting to see the impacts: droughts, melting arctic ice, bleaching of coral reefs and more frequent extreme events. With the Paris Agreement more than 190 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

Here, what does it mean to live in a 2°C warmer world?
What if the global community fails the Paris Goal and humanity has to deal with  associated climate changes and risks?

Conference participants discussed these concerns and called out for more research dedicated to the potential impacts of extreme climate scenarios, in order to prepare communities for a global mean temperature increase of – in worst case scenario – 4°C.

According to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a 2°C warmer world, coral reefs and alpine glaciers are projected to disappear. In a 4°C warmer world, global temperatures will thaw permafrost, alter global ocean currents, worldwide climate regulation and massively release Carbon stocks from boreal forests as well as from rainforests.

It is clear that climate inaction can only exacerbate human and ecological costs. It is time to realize that global climate action is instead now needed to keep temperature rises well below 2°C and avoid the harmful effects on  Nature and on us, embedded in it.

See next Articles → Day 2

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