Human influence on the climate is “unequivocal” and “unprecedented”
The science is clear: human activities have caused significant changes across the atmosphere, ocean, and land at a scale that is largely unparalleled in Earth’s history. Since 1750, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to rise. Currently, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are higher than any time in the last 2 million years, and other greenhouse gases like methane are at concentrations higher than any time in the last 800,000 years. These gases have – at the fastest rate in at least the last 2000 years – driven a 1.1°C increase in global surface temperature (relative to 1850-1900). This has impacted global patterns of precipitation, glacial retreat, and sea level rise, for example.

The effects are felt now, and they are pervasive. Across every inhabited region of the world, human-induced climate change has already impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including heatwaves, droughts, heavy precipitation and flooding. The chance of compound extreme events, where two hazards co-occur, has also increased.

The future climate
The report explores five scenarios (or shared socio-economic pathways, SSPs), varying GHG emissions from “very high” to “very low” levels. All scenarios show continued global surface temperature increase through at least 2050. Thus, historical GHG emissions have committed us to a certain level of warming. Because of this, some changes, such as ice loss and sea level rise, will be effectively irreversible for centuries or even millennia. However, changes in the climate system, particularly extremes, are expected to become more pronounced and increase in intensity and/or frequency with each increment of global warming – so each additional degree counts. A key finding is that while the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C warming goal is surpassed by mid-century in every SSP, the global surface temperature falls back below the aforementioned threshold by 2100 under the lowest emissions scenario.

What can we do about it?
There is a near-linear relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and global warming. Therefore, the primary way to limit human-induced global warming is through reducing carbon dioxide emissions to net-zero, as well as restricting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide removal technologies could play a role in this transition, and might even allow us to reach net negative emissions – though there are also risks involved (see our CDR blog post!). Other GHG emissions reductions will not only help to curb warming, but also reduce air pollution.

This report comes directly before the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, set to take place in Glasgow from late October through mid-November. Though we are already locked into some changes in the climate system, we do still have the chance to limit further exacerbation of the climate crisis. However, this only occur with definitive, transformative – and immediate – action from governments, businesses, and society at large to support rapid and far-reaching transitions across sectors like energy, infrastructure, and finance. UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlights the urgency when he states: “If we combine forces now, we can avert climate catastrophe. But, as [the IPCC] report makes clear, there is no time for delay and no room for excuses. [We] count on Government leaders and all stakeholders to ensure COP26 is a success” [2].

The Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, along with additional information and materials, is available here. Explore the interactive atlas to see potential climate futures across the globe at different levels of warming.

References
[1] IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.

[2] “Secretary-General Calls Latest IPCC Climate Report ‘Code Red for Humanity’, Stressing ‘Irrefutable’ Evidence of Human Influence”. 9 August 2021. Access here.

The post “Code Red for Humanity”: Insights from Newest IPCC Report appeared first on Global Change Ecology.

“Kiss the ground” is a documentary that was released last year (2020). It was directed by Joshua Tickell and Rebecca Harrell Tickell, with a duration of 1 hour and 24 minutes. The introduction of the film gives an overview about the greatness of planet Earth, but also quickly presents news about climate change and natural disasters, sort of justifying humans’ current “state of paralysis.” Right after declaring that the human race gave up on Earth, the narrator (Woody Harrelson), suggests a revolutionary path, a solution deemed simple: SOIL!

Stating that that soil might save us (the whole planet), the film presents some soil functions: greenhouse gas sequestration rebalancing our climate, replenishing freshwater supplies, and food production. By advocating for the soil’s well-being, “Kiss the Ground” also takes us back in time to show the audience that tilling and chemical fertilizers are not allies for sustainable production and are actually degrading the soil. The film explains how plowing caused the loss of 200 million acres of cropland in the U.S. Midwestern Plains in the 1930s, and how agricultural pesticides started being used after US chemical companies imported the creation of German scientist Fritz Harber. Harber intended to make synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to increase food production, but also created poisons which were first used as chemical weapons during the war and the Holocaust.

The documentary gathers scientists, researchers, and environmental activists. While presenting how the Earth system works and the consequences of the current, unsustainable soil management and agricultural practices, it urges for a more regenerative approach in order to heal our soil and our climate. The film’s arguments are easy for everyone to follow and it is a lecture we should not skip. As mentioned in the film, in general, the producers don’t understand how soil works, and as they are benefitted by subsidies, and the hope of high profit from promised crop prices by companies, they just follow procedures to deliver the products demanded. This way, they perpetuate a broken system without knowing they have been damaging their own world and way of living.

The conclusion is not surprising, as pointed out by conservation agronomist Ray Archuleta (U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service): Education is an ecological issue. Archuleta hosts workshops to farmers on how to develop better agricultural practices in hope to plant a seed that will bring change. The film does a good job by presenting the action of people that are really engaged to work for the well-being of the planet and its living beings. I felt very inspired by the projects showcased in the documentary about biosequestration, including the “4 per 1000: Soils for food security and climate,” created by French Minister of Agriculture Stéphane Le Foll; farmers testimonies about developing economically viable and low-impact permaculture and agroforestry systems; NASA models now able to compare tilling periods and plant growth seasons influence on CO2 emissions. It gives the viewer a sense of hope, considering all the knowledge and technology that has developed.

Through science, “Kiss the Ground” brings to light contrasting realities and proposes ways that we can still make a big, positive impact for the sake of our Earth. It discusses politics, ecology, regenerative solutions, composting, diet, supporting sustainable farming systems, and coming together as one for the planet. Four words come to my mind: love, education, hope and regeneration. Those are within the essence presented in this documentary. It covers a lot more than I can possibly tell you in this short post. I will say this: go watch it right now, share it with someone, and join the movement, because, quoting ecologist John D. Liu, (Commonland Foundation), “To see a stream return and flow, to bring back fertile soils, to see biodiversity return to a place that was completely devastated, this is where everyone can find tremendous satisfaction and the meaning of our lives.”

“Kiss the Ground” is available to stream on Netflix, on Vimeo (rent $1), or you can also watch the 45 minute educational version for free on the official website (for schools):

https://kissthegroundmovie.com/

The post Thank the Earth: “Kiss the Ground” Film Review appeared first on Global Change Ecology.

Get to know the Pantanal of Mato Grosso

With an area of 160,000 km², Pantanal is considered the largest wetland on the planet. It is mainly located in the Brazilian territory in the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, having 15,000 km² of its area situated also in Bolivia and 5,000 km² in Paraguay. To the North of Pantanal, we find the Amazon rainforest, and to the west, the Andes Mountain Range. The climate in this biome is characterised as hot with a dry season that extends from May to September and a rainy season in the rest of the year¹. According to Junk et al. (2005)¹, Pantanal was established in a circumglobal belt of climatic instability and this weather conformation drives extreme events of flooding and droughts combined with extensive wildfires that threatens the fauna and the flora of the biome.

Concerning to the biodiversity in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, records list a total 2,241 plant species, 816 aquatic invertebrates, 263 fish species, 96 species of reptiles, 40 amphibian species, 390 bird species and 130 species of mammals¹. Among these, the Jabiru stork is highlighted for being the largest flying bird in this biome and it is considered the symbol of the Pantanal in Brazil. This biome is also considered a sanctuary for the hyacinth macaw, the capybara, the jaguar and the giant river otter – top predators of the ecosystem –, which are all well adapted to the changing environmental conditions of this big wetland.

The 2020 Pantanal Fire Event

Aiming for a better management and environmental protection, in 1998, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE²) started a monitoring program to verify and record fires in the country. Last year (2019), in the Pantanal region, the INPE recorded 3,165 hotspots between January and August, corresponding almost entirely to dry season of the biome. As alarming this number might be to you, the scenario this year was not any better. The records of the same period for year 2020 showed that over 10,000 hotspots were recorded in Pantanal, which has led to the biggest fire event ever recorded for this area.

So far, the fire has burned over 15% of Pantanal’s total area. Even though natural fire events are common in the region during its dry season, increasing deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest and in Pantanal has been affecting the movement of the flying rivers and, hence, the rain patterns in seasonality and magnitude. Lower precipitation rates impact the water level in the wetland – as the biome faces the worst drought in 47 years –, leading to exposure of areas and vegetation that typically would be underwater, even during the dry season. As temperatures are high and the vegetation becomes exposed and dry, even small fires can thrive and ultimately develop into major fire events that are difficult to control and predict, e.g. peat fires.

According to the Integrated Multiagency of Operational Coordination Centre of Mato Grosso (CIMAN-MT), the fires of this year were caused by the anthropogenic interferences to prepare pasture lands for livestock, burning trees to acquire honey, and one accidental fire caused by an agricultural equipment. Nevertheless, even though the causes were discovered, the fire remains bringing destruction to the biome, great loss of biodiversity and seed banks, burning plants and trees, killing the animals and summing up to the global carbon emissions. Every action against the environment is a step closer to 1.5°C higher of the global warming.

Red List Assessment for notable species in the area

Pantanal has the largest concentration of jaguars in the world. Having a look at the UCN Red List assessments (2020) for some animal species that have the wetland as a sanctuary, it is noted that the jaguar is classified as “Near threatened” and its population trend is decreasing, according to the assessment dated in 2016. In regards to the giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis), assessed in 2014, the report categorizes it as an endangered species. Concerning the hyacinth macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus), that was last assessed in the Red List in 2016, the status is as a vulnerable species, with a number of 4,300 of mature individuals worldwide, presenting a decreasing trend on its population. On the other hand, the Jabiru stork (Jabiru mycteria) is classified as of least concern, having a range of 6,700 to 17,000 mature individuals; and the same classification goes for the rodent capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris).

Click here to go the UCN Red List so you can check the status of other species too!

Know how to help

The NGO WWF-Brasil is one of the many organisations that are fighting to revert this tragedy in Pantanal. If you want to know how to HELP, click HERE!

Get to know more about the Pantanal and check the biodiversity photo gallery here!

References

¹ Junk et al. (2005)

² INPE (2020)

The post SOS Pantanal: The fire that ravages the world’s largest wetland appeared first on Global Change Ecology.