The Ocean: benefits, challenges, and solutions

Our Blue Planet, and all of its life, depends on a healthy ocean. Covering over 70% of Earth’s surface, the ocean plays a key role in regulating the climate, absorbing and transporting heat via sea currents from the equator to the poles; and it also produces half of the world’s oxygen. Under climate change, scientists estimate that the ocean absorbs at least 25% of CO2 emissions and has captured 90% of excess warming due to greenhouse gasses over the last 50 years [1,2]. Furthermore, the ocean is home to around 250,000 described species, with scientists estimating that another 700,000 are undiscovered [3]. Such diversity of life is possible due to the array of rich habitats within marine and coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs, seagrass meadows, kelp forests, mangrove forests, as well as coastal shores.

People – and economies – also directly rely on the ocean. It is estimated that around 680 million people live on the coasts, and this number is expected to grow [4]. Additionally, the livelihoods of over 3 billion people depend on the ocean. Marine and coastal areas contribute significantly to the food, tourism and recreation, and transport industries. The global market value of ocean resources and its associated sectors is estimated to be around US$2.5 trillion per year [5].

Yet, the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution is causing ocean health to decline, putting these benefits at risk. Rising temperatures are contributing to impacts like sea level rise and marine heatwaves, while the absorption of excess CO2 leads to ocean acidification [4]. Excess nutrient pollution is leading to algal blooms, which can produce harmful toxins, as well as dead zones where there is no oxygen, which can grow to thousands of km² in size. Increased production, consumption, and improperly managed disposal of plastic pollution has resulted in millions of tons of plastic reaching the ocean yearly (up to 12 million in 2010) [6]. Wildlife can then become tangled in debris, or ingest it and starve with stomachs full of plastic. Unsustainable use of ocean resources, including practices such as overfishing, have also decimated wildlife populations and ecosystems.

To combat problems like these, the United Nations embedded a goal supporting Life Below Water within the Sustainable Development Goals. Specifically, Goal 14 looks to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development”. This Goal was formed with the recognition that the ocean and its resources represent a tremendous opportunity for people and the planet – if we properly use them.

Enhancing SDG 14: The UN Ocean Conference

Clearly, supporting the realization of SDG 14 is crucial for sustainable development. To reinforce this objective, the UN has held the Ocean Conferences. The first Ocean Conference took place from 5 to 9 June 2017 in New York City, sounding the alarm about the state of our oceans while providing a space to discuss solutions and build partnerships. Additionally, from 27 June to 2 July 2022, over 6,000 participants – made up of individuals from civil society, the private sector, states and governments, the scientific community, and more – gathered in Lisbon, Portugal for the 2022 United Nations Ocean Conference. I had the opportunity to support the Conference from the preparation phase through its conclusion in Lisbon.

Preparations

Such a large event does not happen without a lengthy preparatory process. My main role was to provide assistance to the Sustainable Development Officers in the UN Division for Sustainable Development Goals (Department of Economic and Social Affairs) as they worked to actualize the Conference. For me, this looked like attending meetings and taking notes on logistic and substantive aspects of the Conference, as well as related topics. Along with other students, I prepared draft documents such as summaries, remarks, and presentations for supervisors to review, and provided virtual support such as email correspondence, creating or uploading documents, maintaining databases, checking registrations, and updating the Conference website as needed.

Outcomes

Political Declaration

A main outcome of the 2022 UN Ocean Conference is the Political Declaration, “Our Ocean, Our Future, Our Responsibility”. During the preparatory process, co-facilitators held consultations with Member States to get their feedback as the draft document was revised. The document contains a list of science-based and innovative actions needed to support the ocean and those who rely on it for sustainable development. In the end, the final draft was accepted and successfully adopted at the 2022 UN Ocean Conference.

Plenary sessions and partnership dialogues

The Conference programme included both plenary sessions and eight interactive dialogues. During the plenary sessions, Member States and other stakeholders could make interventions. This provided a forum for sharing their experiences, problems, solutions, and more. The eight interactive dialogues centered around different ocean and SDG-related topics. For each of these Dialogues, a panel discussion with experts in each field was held, followed by a discussion period where stakeholders could give statements.

A summary for each plenary session and interactive dialogue was to be prepared for inclusion into the final Conference report. Part of my responsibility on the ground was to provide support by taking notes at these sessions and submitting these to the lead, who would then prepare the summary for approval.

Enhancing ocean action: voluntary commitments

To recover and retain the health of the ocean, actors make voluntary commitments to support the implementation of SDG 14. Any initiative which contributes to the advancement of SDG 14 may be submitted as a voluntary commitment. These projects, either carried out by individuals or as partnerships within or across sectors, represent concrete steps taken by stakeholders to create positive change in the ocean and to reverse its decline. You can find information regarding any of these initiatives within the registry of voluntary commitments, which houses all commitments made since the first Ocean Conference in 2017. Currently, the number of commitments stands at 2,093.

Do these commitments make a difference? A 2021 analysis of their impacts found that voluntary commitments have led to at least 3.3 million km2 of new marine protected areas. Many litter-collecting and awareness-raising initiatives have been held, and governments have implemented bans on single-use plastics under the voluntary commitment framework. Enhanced partnership and scientific cooperation have led to benefits in capacity development, technology development and transfer, and ocean governance. These positive impacts will increase, given the many strong commitments made at the 2022 UN Ocean Conference.

My peers and I assisted with reviewing commitments and corresponding with voluntary commitment holders in case of any issues. We also kept track of the approved voluntary commitments for inclusion into the report of the Conference.

Conclusions

Through this experience, I was able to learn both about ocean issues by listening and speaking directly to top experts across disciplines. I heard how these issues were impacting people and different ways to tackle them; as well as how to sustainably use the opportunities of the ocean. I saw concrete action, partnerships, and cross-sectoral collaboration, and diplomacy driving innovative solutions through the voluntary commitments and the adoption of the outcome document by governments. I also gained insight into the interconnections between the SDGs and saw this reflected throughout the Conference and its lead up.

Overall, being able to take part in the Ocean Conference was a valuable experience, made particularly rewarding by the fact that I was involved during (a portion of) the preparation through the conclusion of the Conference itself. This allowed me to see how the scientific and environmental dimension mixes with the economic, social, and political aspects of sustainable development at different stages to ultimately culminate in the Ocean Conference and its outcomes. At the same time, I had the chance to see first-hand how the UN supports and facilitates all these pieces, and more, for sustainable development.

References

[1] Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison, J., & Heimbach, P. 2019. Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(4): 1126–1131. Link

[2] Watson, A.J., Schuster, U., Shutler, J.D. et al. 2020. Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO₂ flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory. Nature Communications (11): 4422. Link

[3] W. Appeltans, S.T. Ahyong, G. Anderson, M.V. Angel, T. Artois, N. Bailly, R. Bamber, A. Barber, I. Bartsch, A. Berta, et al. 2012. The magnitude of global marine species diversity. Current Biology. 22: 2189-2202. Link

[4] IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 755 pp. Link

[5] UNCTAD. 2021. Advancing the potential of sustainable ocean-based economies: trade trends, market drivers and market access. Link

[6] Jambeck J. R. Geyer R. Wilcox C. Siegler T. R. Perryman M. Andrady A. Narayan R. Law K. L. 2015. Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean. Science 347(6223): 768-771 pp. Link

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The answer is YES, there’s still a difference. It is true that the world has changed a lot since the first wave of feminism, where women sought access to equal education, the right to vote, as well as physical and financial independence. However, there is still a long way to go to achieve true gender equality. A familiar example of this is that – even in the middle of 2022 – there is still a significant wage gap between men and women. In Germany, the difference is 18% and in Europe, it is 13%. Another example of this is the lack of representation in government institutions: the European Parliament is currently made up with only 39.2% women, which is the historical maximum.

Nor should we forget to mention our sisters from the global south and other parts of the world who are currently fighting against a system that neglects justice. These women are redesigning the current legal instruments to counter gender violence. In several states, they have achieved the right to legal, accessible and free abortion. They are seeking to modify the education system to include integral sexual education. We also must recognize the efforts of our ecofeminist sisters who organize, give their time, will, body and life to defend natural resources against large exploitative companies. In this context, it is clear that gender-based abuse is also observed across the environmental scheme during the use, management and/or protection of nature. This shows that being a woman in different social contexts represents different challenges and inequalities.

“Que tú privilegio no nuble tu empatía”

“That your privilege doesn’t cloud your empathy “

Furthermore, Climate Change is a phenomenon that increases inequality and endangers women’s lives. First of all, the climate crisis does not affect everyone in the same way. Women and minorities are the most affected, as in many cases they are responsible for managing, administering and protecting household resources, such as collecting water, caring for backyard gardens to feed their families, managing the wood from their forests, etc. All these activities depend on climatic health, so climate change threatens their livelihoods and leaves them in a vulnerable position. Moreover, structural inequality limits the capacities of communities to adapt to the effects of climate change, which again makes them more vulnerable.

Considering all that has been mentioned, it is important to analyze gender inequality and its relation to the climate crisis through the lens of intersectionality. In this way, we can include the systemic inequalities that are configured from the overlapping of different social factors such as gender, ethnicity and social class. All the situations of violence and inequality faced by women show that being a woman in this society is clearly a disadvantage. A major question arises: if we are aware of the inequality, why does it still exist?

Our current conditions are a response to a historical truth: we live under a patriarchal system. But what do we mean when we talk about patriarchy? Patriarchy is an unequal hierarchical system, which attributes characteristics, roles, status and behavior to each sex based on their gender. It divides women from men based on a supposed female inferiority, giving men the dominant power. According to Kate Millet, patriarchy is a “system of male domination that facilitates the oppression and subordination of women”.

This same relationship of domination and subjugation experienced by feminized bodies is replicated with nature. Both have been objectified and used as a territory of conquest, as objects of exploitation, and are victims of violence. Nature and women are to a large extent victims of the externalities of economic development.

Currently, we live under an economic system that subjugates territories and nature in favor of a supposed economic development based on accumulated production and consumption. Moreover, this economic system is controlled by invisible forces, under the misguided idea of infinite growth and the fantasy of individuality on a planet with limited resources. Therefore, we can say that the climate crisis and gender inequality have patriarchal roots and are partly the result of supremacist capitalism.

Adriana Guzman, an anti-patriarchal community feminist from Bolivia, goes further and refers to patriarchy as “the system of all oppressions, all discriminations and all violence that humanity and nature historically built on women’s bodies”, therefore she considers that all oppressions, such as the exploitation generated by capitalism, are learned directly in women’s bodies.

The relationship of violence and harm against feminized bodies and the environment comes from the same systemic mechanisms. Therefore, we can state that achieving gender equity means ending the patriarchal capitalist system, which means we need a complete deconstruction of social schemes under a scheme of domination. It also means that we should have inclusion of a diversity of ideas and worldviews with which we could build a better reality for society.

It must be noted that, nowadays the same factors, actors and systems that caused the climate crisis are the ones that pretend to look for solutions. Other voices and ideas are ignored, which creates a lack of representativity and stops the development of holistic, integral and effective solutions. Similarly, it is not possible to reach comprehensive goals and solutions to the climate crisis if we do not address our colonial past and the remnants of post-colonialism, as well as the methods of exploitation of territories. Therefore, the ecological and feminist dimensions are essential to transform the conception and management of territories and of planet earth.

Likewise, being aware that patriarchy exists and that it is a structural problem is only the first step in eradicating it. Marilyn Fyre argues that the power of domination exercised by men has been internalized in society for so long that it will be difficult to break it. This system takes shape in everyday life; what may seem normal and correct does not always follow ethical principles. This can be seen in subtle attitudes like mansplaining to situations that threaten our lives such as domestic violence and femicide. For that reason, it is necessary to question our reality and try to reach awareness about the behaviour, rules and norms in our society. A feminist perspective should be included in the government agendas, discussed in the school and universities and must be recognized part of the climate change solutions.

However, patriarchy still shapes our lives. We must not forget that women have to achieve several improvements to make the world more equal. Our current conditions are the result of the strength of our feminist collectives and women ancestors who were labelled as witches or madwomen while being doctors, philosophers, leaders and fighters for rights. They were women who, with the right conditions, managed to change the social structure little by little. Moreover, women collectives and leaders are still fighting to break the system that was designed for favoured men. We are now looking to end inequality and create a new society where the dominant and abusive relationships between the people and nature are broken. There’s still too much to do, but we will be able to shape a new reality.

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        Water is also a vehicle for many bacteria, protozoa and viral pathogens, which can cause diseases associated with gastroenteritis, and even other severe illnesses, such as meningitis and hepatitis [2]. Furthermore, with climate change influencing higher frequency of extreme events, the quantity and quality of water is compromised by both droughts and floods. Hence, the Sustainable Development Goal 6 aims to ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all, encompassing six targets to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water, as well as sanitation and hygiene, improving water quality, increasing water efficiency in the different sectors, implementation of an integrated water resources management, and protection and restoration of ecosystems [3].

Clean Water, Sanitation, and Health

        In 2020, officials recorded that 2 billion people (or 26% of the global population) lack access to safe potable water, and 3.6 billion people (or 46% of the global population) do not have access to safely managed sanitation facilities [4]. Access to clean drinking water and sanitation infrastructure is closely linked to health. In fact, a study conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2012 concluded that every US$1.00 invested in sanitation would result in a return of US$5.50 in lower costs for health systems, increasing productivity, and preventing premature deaths [5]. According to WHO data, the region most affected by sanitation deficiency is Sub-Saharan Africa, where 12% of the population has access to basic sanitation facilities, 19% has a limited structure available, 31% has the use of an unimproved system, and 18% practices open defecation (Figure 1). Additionally, other regions that have less than 50% of their population with access to safely managed sanitation systems include: Latin America and Caribbean, Western Asia and Northern Africa, and Central and Southern Asia.

        Experts estimate that the absence of proper water and sanitation facilities is the leading cause of the death for 827,000 people in low- and middle- income countries [5]. The main associated diseases are diarrhoea (responsible for 60% of the aforementioned number of deaths), cholera, typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A, and polio, besides illnesses caused by intestinal worms, such as schistosomiasis and trachoma, and malnutrition [5; 7]. A sad reality, considering that most of these diseases can be easily preventable with access to potable water and to adequate sanitation systems. For instance, improved water and sanitation access could avert the deaths of children under age 5, which is estimated to be 297,000, as well as stunting [5].

         Furthermore, the current reality of precarious water and sanitation systems in many places around the world makes the fight against the spread of COVID-19 even more challenging. Adequate hygiene measures are key to prevent the spread of the virus. However, in low income countries, there is a high deficiency in water services to provide this benefit of proper hygiene. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, only 26% of its population have access to basic handwashing facilities (soap and water), 40% have limited access (i.e. without water or soap), and 34% completely lack any service or alternative [6]. Moreover, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA has been reported in wastewater, although the knowledge on the infectivity of the virus via wastewater is limited at the moment [8].

Clean Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change

         Climate change represents a serious threat to the provision of clean freshwater worldwide. This is largely due to the finding that climate change is projected to cause shifts in patterns of precipitation and evaporation, as well as alter the frequency and severity of extreme weather events [9, 10]. Estimates suggest that modifications in surface water area indicative of drought and flooding events are taking place in about one-fifth of the world’s river basins [11]. Droughts decrease water availability while maintaining or increasing demand, leading to water scarcity. Without the water they need for drinking, hygiene, or other uses like agriculture, people suffer. The little-available water can be more likely to contain pollutants, which can impact human health [12]. People may be driven to drink contaminated water, which results in a surge in waterborne diseases. With little or no rainfall and no water for irrigation, agriculture and livestock are negatively affected, and food supply also becomes endangered [13]. Additionally, drought-driven lack of water can cause conflict among users, as they compete for a dwindling resource. When conflict arises, it can impact and divert resources from the community’s infrastructure, including systems to maintain and sanitize fresh water [14].

         Like too little water, too much water is also a problem. When extreme events like flooding occur, there can be negative consequences for water quality and sanitation systems [15]. Flooding events have been associated with the presence of higher levels of microbes and pathogens, as well as metals and chemical and organic contaminants [16, 17]. Increased surface runoff associated with heavy rainfall can pick up sediment, contaminants like fertilizer, and other pollutants, which then might be transferred to a community’s water source [15, 17]. Heavy rainfall and flooding can also overload and damage infrastructure and sanitation systems, leaving communities with contaminated, unsafe water [18].

        Sustainable use of water resources, along with resilient infrastructure, forms a basis for gaining and maintaining access to clean water and sanitation for vulnerable communities across the world. An integrated, participatory approach to management, combined with risk assessment and adaptive solutions, including community lead and/or nature-based solutions, can increase water security and safety [19]. Strengthening cooperation between communities, countries, and other stakeholders, including with transboundary water management, promotes knowledge-sharing, harmonises the use of water resources, and ultimately augments the effectiveness of water governance. Additionally, increasing effective climate action and the protection of natural ecosystems will enhance the stability of the earth system and, thus, of water resources [20, 21].

Conclusions

         Ensuring the availability and accessibility of clean water to all, particularly in the face of ongoing climate change, is a key challenge moving forward. Access to sanitation systems and sufficient quantities of clean, quality water is paramount to human health and helps to fight diseases, including COVID-19. Prevention and investments in safely and sustainably managed water systems and sanitation facilities improve health and quality of life, besides contributing to a positive feedback in the economy for the health system. It is important to have this awareness and continue to develop technologies, form connections among various stakeholders, and engage in action in order to make progress towards the achievement of the targets of the SDG 6 for a universal and equitable access to water and sanitation systems.

References

[1] Bureau of Reclamation: Water Facts – Worldwide water supply

[2] Gall, A.M., Mariñas, B.J., Lu, Y., & Shisler, J.L. (2015). Waterborne Viruses: A Barrier to Safe Drinking Water. PLoS Pathogens, 11(6): e1004867

[3] United Nations: Goal 6 – Ensure access to water and sanitation for all

[4] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Sustainable Development: Goal 6 – Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

[5] World Health Organization: Sanitation Fact sheets

[6] Our World in Data: Clean water and sanitation

[7] World Health Organization: Water, sanitation and hygiene – exposure

[8] Kitajima et al. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater: State of the knowledge and research needs. Science of The Total Environment 739: 139076.

[9] IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

[10] Konapala, G., Mishra, A.K., Wada, Y. et al. (2020). Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nature Communications 11: 3044.

[11] UN Summary Progress Update 2021: SDG 6 – Water and sanitation for all; 

[12] Benotti, M. J., Stanford, B. D., & Snyder, S. A. (2010). Impact of drought on wastewater contaminants in an urban water supply. Journal of environmental quality 39(4): 1196–1200.

[13] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Health Implications of Drought;

[14] Levy, B. S., & Sidel, V. W. (2011). Water rights and water fights: preventing and resolving conflicts before they boil over. American journal of public health, 101(5): 778–780.

[15] Erickson, T. B., Brooks, J., Nilles, E. J., Pham, P. N., & Vinck, P. (2019). Environmental health effects attributed to toxic and infectious agents following hurricanes, cyclones, flash floods and major hydrometeorological events. Journal of toxicology and environmental health. Part B, Critical reviews 22(5-6): 157–171.

[16] Yard, E. E., Murphy, M. W., Schneeberger, C., Narayanan, J., Hoo, E., Freiman, A., Lewis, L. S., & Hill, V. R. (2014). Microbial and chemical contamination during and after flooding in the Ohio River-Kentucky, 2011. Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances & environmental engineering, 49(11): 1236–1243.

[17] Sun, R., An, D., Lu, W., Shi, Y., Wang, L., Zhang, C., Zhang, P., Qi, H., & Wang, Q. (2016). Impacts of a flash flood on drinking water quality: case study of areas most affected by the 2012 Beijing flood. Heliyon 2(2): e00071.

[18] McCluskey, J. 2001.Water supply, health and vulnerability in floods. Waterlines. 19(3): 14-17.

[19] Agarwal, A., de los Angeles, M. S., Bhatia, R., Chéret, I., Davila-Poblete, S., Falkenmark, M., Gonzalez-Villarreal, F., Jønch-Clausen, T., Aït Kadi, M., Kindler, J., Rees, J., Roberts, P., Rogers, P., Solanes, M. & Wright, A. (2000). Integrated Water Resources Management. GWP-TAC Background Papers (4). 43 pp.

[20] UNECE – Water and adaptation to climate change

[21] IUCN – Water and climate chance issues brief

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As malnutrition has been identified as a serious health-related problem affecting developed and developing countries around the world alike, the United Nations (UN) has named the time between 2016 and 2025 the Decade of Action on Nutrition [1]. With the aim of reducing global malnutrition as well as diet-related non-communicable diseases by 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have set clear targets throughout the Second International Conference on Nutrition. The beginning of the Decade of Action on Nutrition coincides with the implementation of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which were adopted in 2015 and came into force in 2016. Within the framework of the SDGs, the UN aims to end hunger by 2030, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG 2). Additionally, the UN aims to ensure healthy lives and promote global well-being for people at all ages (SDG 3) [2]. To achieve these goals, the WHO has implemented a nutrition strategy to ensure access to healthy and sustainably grown diets on a global scale.

These strategies and goals come in pressing times, as malnutrition is affecting people worldwide. It occurs in various forms, the four most relevant including: wasting, which refers to a low weight-for height ratio; stunting, referring to a low height-for-age ratio; underweight, meaning a low weight-for-age ratio; and obesity, which occurs when a person is too heavy for their height [1]. Current estimates indicate that about 8.9 percent of the world population are suffering from hunger, while one in ten people in the world are exposed to severe levels of food insecurity [2]. The highest proportion of undernourished people can be found in Asian countries, directly followed by many African nations. Hunger has increased over the last five years, with 462 million adults being underweight globally (2021) [1]. Children under the age of 5 are at particular risk of long-lasting effects due to early childhood malnutrition. Around 7% of children in this age category suffer from acute under-nutrition [3], and 45% of deaths among children under 5 years of age are in one way or another linked to under-nutrition [1]. Stunting in young children has decreased globally by 11% compared to 2000; however, an alarming 22% are still affected by it [3]. Little to no progress has been made regarding wasting, which continues to affect around 7% of children around the world [3].

In terms of number of people affected, obesity, or over-nutrition, seems to be the bigger issue, with numbers almost tripling since 1975. 1.9 billion adults (2016), 340 million adolescents (2016) and roughly 39 million children below the age of 5 years are currently overweight or obese (2021) [4], with numbers rising slowly but steadily. This means that over-nutrition affects around 6% of children under 5 years of age [3]. Over-nutrition affects developed and developing countries alike and is a reason for concern in many low- and middle-income countries, as they face the double burden of under- and over-nutrition. The main reason for obesity in developing countries is the cheap availability of high-fat, high-sugar but oftentimes nutrient-poor foods combined with low physical activity [5]. Therefore, while under-nutrition affects mostly developing countries, over-nutrition can affect both developed and developing nations.

Where does our food come from now?

The highest share of exported agricultural products, amounting to $118 billion (2021) [6], comes from the United States of America. Major crops for export include corn, soybean, and wheat. The US is followed by the Netherlands ($79 billion, although mostly in flowers and live plants), Germany ($71 billion through organic products especially) [7], France ($68 billion through mostly wheat, sugar, wine, and beef) [8] and Brazil ($55 billion through soybeans, meat, sugar, coffee, corn, and fruit) [9] (2021). It is projected that international food trade will become even more important in the future. With rising temperatures, the global food system will also continue to become more exposed to the effects of climate change [10].

Climate change projections on terrestrial food supply

Estimates show that from 1980 to 2011, climate change reduced global maize and wheat production by approximately 5%. If we fail to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and instead steer towards a 4°C warming by the end of the century, models suggest that there will be a 25% reduction of maize and a 15% reduction of corn by 2100 [10]. The CO₂ fertilization effect, possibly beneficial for plant growth, is already included in these calculations.

This decrease of food production goes along with a predicted increasing demand for agricultural products due to a growing world population. Additionally, most of this population growth is projected to happen in regions that already experience high levels of malnutrition or food scarcity, such as many African and Asian countries [11]. Moreover, the stress on food supply will be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. It must be noted at this point that predictions around climate change impacts have a great spatial variability. This means that some regions, like more northern latitudes, could profit from those changes (through more suitable growing conditions, for example), while the changes are likely to result in a loss of agricultural productivity in other regions.

Especially tropical areas will experience a decline in yields (Figure 2) [11]. Many of those regions, like some African countries, will thus face a three-part challenge: first, present high levels of malnutrition; second, a projected population growth; and third, significant yield losses caused by global warming.

On the bright side, more and more agricultural products are part of the global food trade system, which has the power to balance supply shortages in one country by providing food exports from another country. Nevertheless, climate change can and will also increase pressure on international food trade through increased climate variability and more frequent extreme events [10].

An example for the effects of extreme weather on international food trade could be observed back in 2010. In 2010, Russia was struck by an unprecedented heat wave, with July temperatures climbing to the highest values in 130 years. The heat wave was accompanied by numerous wildfires leading to 17% of total Russian crop area being affected by severe heat or fires [12]. With Russia being the 4^th largest wheat exporter and accounting for 14% of global wheat trade, the extreme weather thus had severe effects on the international food market. International grain prices increased as soon as news about a reduced grain production in Russia due to the heat wave were released. In order to protect local customers and ensure food security, the Russian government imposed an export ban on wheat, barley, and rye from August 2010 on, which lasted until July 2011 [12, 13]. Consequently, Russia’s wheat exports dropped by almost 40 % from 2009 to 2010 [13]. This export ban had drastic implications on the importing countries. For example, Russia’s fourth biggest wheat customer, Pakistan, saw 16% higher wheat prices and a 1.6% increase in poverty during this period [12]. According to some studies, the Russian export ban on grain products played a decisive role in the Arab spring, which started in December 2010 in Egypt. The country obtains roughly 50% of its grain supply from Russia and the export stop of grain led to riots and violence on the streets, with people protesting against the increasing prices for food which they were struggling to afford at that time [12, 13].

Under the influence of climate change, extreme events like the Russian heat wave in 2010 are likely to happen more often in future decades. A study by Kornhuber et al. (2020) has shown that with increasing global temperatures, atmospheric dynamics will change, which will lead to a stronger meandering of the jet-stream and more persistent Rossby waves. These changes will mainly impact the northern mid-latitudes, which are often considered as breadbasket regions, given that they export a great share of their agricultural produce [14]. With an increasing share of global food production moving away from regions with the highest projected population growth and towards more northern latitudes, increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events threatens the global food system [10].

Considering the above-mentioned effects that result from rising carbon concentrations in the atmosphere and global warming, agriculture and the whole food production system need to adapt and change. This gets even clearer, when keeping in mind that without major changes, the agricultural sector alone would exceed the total global carbon budget to limit global warming to below 1.5°C by the end of the century [15].

Direct effects of CO2 on crops

Rising CO₂ levels not only affect temperature and our earth’s climate, but also have an influence on crops. One could argue that a higher CO₂ level in the atmosphere would simply act as a natural fertilizer by increasing plant growth – and therefore could be considered as something positive for the overall food production and food security. Unfortunately, this is oversimplified and remains a common myth. Clearly, higher concentrations of CO₂ are acknowledged for stimulating plant photosynthesis and growth [16]. However, this is only the case as long as nothing else changes. Higher CO₂ levels in the atmosphere not only affect the plant available water and available CO₂, but also temperature, rainfall patterns, sea levels, and more. Therefore, the direct impacts of increased atmospheric CO₂ are likely to be extremely complex. Furthermore, the effects are not only complex, but vary greatly from region to region and from one kind of farming to another [17]. Therefore, it is hard for studies to reveal the concrete outcome for the direct effects of CO₂ in the atmosphere on agriculture.

For example, in the case of wheat in Europe, higher CO₂ levels in the atmosphere and associated higher temperature could extend the growing season. This is especially the case for regions where temperature is the limiting factor. It is estimated that the growing season is lengthened by about 10 days per degree Celsius [18] if the mean annual temperature increase remains under 3 degrees Celsius. Increases that are higher than 3 degrees Celsius are likely to be problematic and to limit the growing season again, because the increased evapotranspiration rate leads to decreased crop-water availability.

Besides crop growth and quantity, which can be enhanced by higher CO₂ levels under certain conditions, crop quality is also an important issue. Crop quality refers to the amounts of nutrients, as well as the composition between carbohydrates, fats, and proteins. A protein and nutrient deficiency can be especially problematic when it comes to food quality.

Studies revealed that important minerals like iron and zinc are decreasing in legumes and C3 crops (e.g., wheat, soybeans, oats, rice) [17]. This is critical, since many people all over the world rely on those crops as their primary source for iron and zinc. Furthermore, studies revealed that also the protein content is decreasing with elevated CO₂ levels. These elevated CO₂ levels can reduce the nutritional quality of staple crops. Crops with higher carbohydrate conditions and less protein content as well as less mineral content could be part of our future under climate change.

Especially a deficiency in zinc and iron, which some regions already struggle with, will continue to grow into an even bigger problem in the future. Countries that are already affected by nutrient deficiency will be disproportionately more affected in the future [19]. These deficiencies in iron and zinc can lead to human health issues. A deficiency in zinc for example can lead to a weaker immune system, which makes the human body more vulnerable to infections. A good immune system is always important, but in times of a global pandemic it has an even higher priority. Therefore, good quality crops are important for overall human health across the world.

Genetically modified seeds

Periods of dryness, heavy rain, and other extreme events have a direct impact on crop growth and agriculture. Furthermore, new invasive insect species due to climate change or new crop diseases hit the agricultural sector and global food security hard. Therefore, the demand is high to genetically modify seeds in a such a way that they can better tolerate dry conditions and stress. These seeds that are modified in their DNA are called genetically modified seeds. The degree to which the seeds are modified varies, but all modifications have the same goal: make the seeds more adaptable to certain environmental circumstances.

Currently, soy, maize, cotton, and canola are the top four crops which are seeded in genetically modified versions [18]. The most induced traits are herbicide tolerance and insect resistance. There are also other experiments with crops to make them more resistant to drier soils. Having crops that are more resilient when it comes to water stress could be beneficial in the face of climate change. Having genetically modified crops that are more insect resistant could also reduce the amount of pesticides used by farmers.

There is no clear statement on whether the consumption of genetically modified seeds is good or bad for human health. However, there are concerns, not only from an ethical point of view. To control and supervise every impact that a genetically modified seed has on the plant, on the soil, or on the consumer is a complex and hard to achieve task. Many environmental organizations, like the BUND, have strong concerns about growing genetically modified seeds because the overall impacts of the modifications are not clear yet. In summary, genetically modified seeds may help to keep up food production in the face of climate change. But the question of whether this is the only solution to provide a high level of global food security remains.

Climate change and its impacts on oceanic fisheries

Not only the food on our lands is in danger due to climate change but also that in our oceans. Oceans absorb 93% of the heat that accumulates in the earth’s atmosphere and a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by fossil fuels, making them important players in climate dynamics. Temperature variations, acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in currents are all effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. These impacts can alter the distribution of fish stocks and the food they consume. Furthermore, these stocks face over-fishing and other anthropogenic pressures. To preserve our oceans and maintain fish populations, we must move towards sustainable fishing. To manage fishing sustainably, it is also necessary to adapt to the challenges that climate change presents [20].

In the last 30 years, marine heatwaves are thought to have increased by more than 50%. Ocean temperatures are expected to rise by 1-4°C globally by 2100 [21]. Marine life is being damaged by these changes. Temperature spikes and acidity can result in the decline or death of marine environments and species. The distribution of fish stocks and the structure of ecosystems are changing because of shifting ocean currents and warming seas. It is predicted that the tropics will see a 40% decrease of oceanic life by 2050; on the other hand, some areas in North Atlantic and North Pacific are witnessing some increases in the range of some fish species [22].

Many people around the world rely on fish as a significant source of food and livelihood. According to FAO, 3.3 billion people acquire at least 20% of their daily protein intake from fish. Moreover, 39 million people are employed for wild capture of fishing and 37% of people living in coastal communities are directly employed in the fishing industry. Notably, half of the traded sea food comes from developing nations. Asia accounted for 85% of the global population involved in fisheries and aquaculture, followed by Africa (9%) and the Americas (4%) in 2018 [23]. With the increase of anthropogenic influence on oceanic activities, the potential for negative consequences for people, species, and marine habitats increases. The more sustainable our fishing becomes, the more vulnerable populations as well as future generations will benefit from food security and a stable livelihood in a well-functioning ecosystem.

One example of a human-induced disaster with negative consequences for ecology and for the people dependent on it as a source of food supply and livelihood is the Aral Sea case. The situation started in 1960s, as the Soviet Union diverted Amu Darya and Syr Darya, the two major inflows of Aral Sea. The blockage of the water source, combined with high summer temperatures of 60ºC at lake’s location in the Turkestan Desert, led to an increase in the salinity of water from 1% to 10% and a shrinkage of lake area by 10% from its original size. By 2007, the aquatic life could no longer thrive. The two river deltas’ wetlands, as well as their accompanying ecosystems, largely vanished. The shoreline has shrunk to 10km inside the former lake shore, and the surface of the water body is more saline.  With the fish gone and ecosystems vastly altered, local communities have no longer been able to rely on the sea as a significant source of livelihood and resources. Additionally, due to the lack of moisture and the loss of most of the lake’s moderating influence, the regional climate is drier, with more severe temperature extremes. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns, causing a variety of respiratory illnesses.

As we can see, global food supply is already at risk, but will be subjected to further stress due to anthropogenically induced climate change as it alters atmospheric CO₂ balances, causes heavier and more frequent extreme events, and affects temperature and precipitation patterns. This will have detrimental consequences on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 3, as it will exacerbate hunger and insecurity in developing countries and put the health of populations across the world at risk. Mitigating climate change is of utmost priority and will help save millions of lives.

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